Ergo, leveraging splits in the CCP elite is arguably the most effective way to bring about real change in China. strategy should be “laser focused on Xi, his inner circle, and the Chinese political context in which they rule.” We conclude from our long research into the CCP that virtually all issues in Communist China are downstream of Party elite politics, and at the core of elite politics are intra-Party factional struggles. Meanwhile, former Trump administration officials can virtually be ruled out as possible authors of the “Longer Telegram” establishment think-tanks and media outlets are putting themselves at huge risk in “platforming” the ideas of the previous administration in the current political climate in America.Īs a leading authority in the field of CCP factional politics, we concur with the premise in the “Longer Telegram” that U.S. Also, the idea of a non-monolithic CCP and “moderate” voices in the Party elite was prominently mooted in the “China is not an enemy” open letter signed by over one hundred American scholars, former diplomats and military officials, and business leaders in July 2019. intelligence community’s “capabilities and competencies with respect to the People’s Republic of China” published in September 2020. For instance, calls in the “Longer Telegram” to understand the CCP’s “internal political dynamics” and avoid viewing the Party as a monolith can be found in the House Intelligence Committee’s report assessing the U.S. We believe that while the “Longer Telegram” may be written by one person, the arguments presented hint at the involvement of a larger grouping of establishment elites, including China specialists in the foreign affairs and intelligence communities, as well as business executives invested in Communist China. The identity of “Anonymous” is already a topic of speculation among China watchers and will certainly be known to D.C. policy makers should understand the “granularity” of “internal political dynamics” in the CCP to “identify the optimal points of leverage to bring about real change” in “individual Chinese policy behaviors.” Successful implementation of the strategy outlined in the “Longer Telegram” should see “China return to its pre-2013 path-i.e., the pre-Xi strategic status quo” and the replacement of Xi Jinping by a “more moderate collective leadership” such as the one in the days of “Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.” “Anonymous” believes that it is “simply unsophisticated strategy to treat the entire Communist Party as a single monolithic target when such internal fault lines should be clear to the analyst’s eye-and in the intelligent policy maker’s pen.” Rather, U.S. strategy should thus revolve around leadership change, not regime change. The “Longer Telegram” author then argues that the “political reality” in the Chinese communist regime “is that the CCP is significantly divided on Xi’s leadership and his vast ambitions,” especially where “he threatens the lives, careers, and deeply held policy positions of many within its senior political echelons.” Since many in the Party elite want Xi Jinping gone and the CCP General Secretary’s revisionist ambitions present a “serious challenge to the whole of the democratic world,” U.S. strategy on China must work “along the grain of that complex reality” of how Communist China functions internally. Kennan and his “Long Telegram,” argues that U.S. “Anonymous,” who is channeling the American diplomat George F.
Should Focus on Xi.” As stated explicitly in the Politico headline and the magazine’s China newsletter, the “Longer Telegram” calls on the United States to “put replacing Xi at the center of its China policy by leveraging splits in the CCP elite.” 28, the Atlantic Council published an 85-page report titled, “The Longer Telegram: Toward a New American China Strategy,” by an anonymous author who claims to be a “former senior government official with deep expertise and experience dealing with China.” The report’s executive summary was republished by Politico Magazine on the same day with the headline, “To Counter China’s Rise, the U.S. ◎ How America approaches the CCP threat now will have profound ramifications for the world.
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